Spotting an arbitrage
Add up 1 ÷ the best odds for each outcome, across bookmakers. If the total is under 1 (under 100%), the prices disagree enough to guarantee a profit. Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 and under at 2.05 give 0.4762 + 0.4878 = 0.9640: a 3.6% arbitrage.
Staking an arbitrage
Stake on each outcome = total stake × (1 ÷ its odds) ÷ book. On ₦10,000 the example splits into about ₦4,940 and ₦5,060 and returns about ₦10,373 whichever wins. The arbitrage calculator does the split.
Risks of arbitrage
- Odds move: one price can change before you place the second bet.
- Palpable errors: bookmakers can void bets placed at obviously wrong prices.
- Different rules: two bookmakers can settle the same event differently, for example after an abandoned match.
- Account limits: bookmakers often restrict accounts that only take arbitrages.
Dutching
Dutching covers only some outcomes. You stake more on the shorter prices and less on the longer ones, so every covered outcome returns the same amount. Three correct scores at 4.00, 5.00 and 6.00 with ₦10,000 return ₦16,216 if any of them lands. The dutching calculator handles up to six picks.
| Arbitrage | Dutching | |
|---|---|---|
| Outcomes covered | All | Some |
| Can lose | No, if every bet stands | Yes |
| Typical use | Price differences | Several likely winners |
If the implied chances of your dutched picks add up to more than 100%, the return is below your stake. Drop the shortest price.
Questions
Is arbitrage betting legal?
Betting at several bookmakers is legal, but each bookmaker can restrict or close accounts under its terms.
How big are real arbitrages?
Usually small, often 1 to 3%, and they disappear quickly.
Can dutching be used across bookmakers?
Yes, and taking the best price for each pick improves the return.